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Some Subversive Reading September 30, 2008

Posted by Matt in books.
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A few of my online friends have already posted about this, but I felt the need to recognize Banned Book Week as well. I’m sure that ever since the beginning of the written word, when ancient man first took chisel to stone, there has been someone wagging a self righteous finger in their faces. So, take some time to be thankful for those authors who, despite opposition, seek to practice their art and stretch our minds in the process.

I have to admit that I feel kind of left out, though, for I’ve only read 10 of the top 100 challenged books from 2000-2007. What about you?

Country Calling September 30, 2008

Posted by Matt in work.
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One of the interesting opportunities afforded me by my place of employment is that I have a good bit of direct contact with workers in other countries, including monthly calls with a few of them. While I usually sit in on the communications with Japan, China, Australia, Germany, and Spain those countries are handled by my demand planning counterparts, so my role is kept at a minimum. But, I currently conduct two of the calls, with South Africa and Italy, which makes me their main demand planning contact in the company.

My South Africa contact, Ray, is fairly easy to understand with his strong British accent, but Italy, on the other hand, in another story altogether. Imagine the biggest Italian male caricature you can think of…that’s how talking to our contact, Andrea, is. A given line in our conversation from his side might be:

Andrea: I would-a like-a to-a increase-a the forecast-a.

I can’t help but wonder if he is a plumber on the side who stomps on flying turtles, eats powerful mushrooms, and saves princesses…

Monday Morning Quarterback September 29, 2008

Posted by Matt in Football.
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What a weekend in the football world! If you are like me, then you were glued to your television in disbelief Saturday watching team after team fall from the AP-ordained pedestal, making the gap between David and Goliath look much more manageable than ever before.

A few of my observations from the past few days.

- When was the last time that 3 out of the top 5 ranked teams lost in one week? I guess we should have known something was up when top-ranked USC dropped one to Oregon St. on Thursday, but who could have guessed that it would just be the beginning?

- Perhaps I’m just vindictive, but, man, I hated to see Ole Miss and Houston Nutt pull the upset on Florida. Now this isn’t because I’m a Gator fan by any means, I’m just a Nutt anti-fan and now I’m being forced to listen to all of my Rebel-loving neighbors. No worries, though, when he loses a few close ones due to poor fourth quarter play-calling (which, no doubt, will happen) my feelings will be justified and my glee unrestrained.

- Can we, as fans of the Arkansas Razorbacks, go ahead and call the season off now? After two weeks in a row of embarassingly one-sided losses in which we’ve given up a total of 101 points, I have trouble believing that we can win another game this season. Even our remaining nonconference opponent, Tulsa, looks awfully intimidating with former Arkansas OC Gus Malzahn calling the plays.

- On the NFL front, I still feel pretty good about my Dallas Cowboys, despite their loss to Washington yesterday. The team that has surprised me the most so far as to be the Tennessee Titans, though I can’t help but wonder how long 35 year old QB Kerry Collins will be able to shoulder the load before imploding.

Any thoughts from you out there? Is Nick Saban really the second coming? Was the Tennessee – Auburn game one of the biggest wastes of 3 hours in your life? Will my fantasy football teams ever bounce back?

Who Needs Real Politics… September 28, 2008

Posted by Matt in President 2008.
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When you have Saturday Night Live? In case you missed it, here are links to this weekend’s Sarah Palin – Katie Couric interview skit and the Obama – McCain debate.

One Last Bow… September 27, 2008

Posted by Matt in movies.
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Today is a sad day in the world of entertainment for we have lost one of the truly great ones. Paul Newman, my personal favorite and arguably the best to ever grace the silver screen, passed away today at the age of 83. I really just came to appreciate his genius 5 or 6 years ago after first watching Cool Hand Luke and, following that experience, I embarked on a journey through almost all of his great films – The Sting, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The Hustler, Hud, and on and on. He will truly be missed.

Flying Solo with the Black Keys September 26, 2008

Posted by Matt in concerts, music.
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There are few things in this world that I enjoy more than live music. I love the atmosphere, I love the energy, and I love that feeling of exultation when the artist plays that certain song or hits those certain notes that send chills up your spine. There is something ortherworldly about the transcendent power of music that lifts you from your current station I life to some higher plane of existence, and it is that feeling for which we yearn.

Last night I had the opportunity to catch a band in concert that I have become a big fan of over the past year, The Black Keys. I first really came into contact with their blues-rock style through Memphis’ own Craig Brewer and his excellent film Black Snake Moan and I’ve been following them ever since. They are somewhat similar to the White Stripes in that they are a two piece (guitar and drums) outfit with blues influences, but, where the White Stripes are more closely aligned with Zeppelin’s blues excursions (think “I Can’t Quit You Baby), the Black Keys’ sound is far dirtier and grimier, as if their amps are somehow submerged in Mississippi river mud. Oh, and they just flat-out rock. Though I couldn’t find anyone to join me for their show last night at the New Daisy, I wasn’t about to miss the chance to see them live.

Around 9:00, the first of two opening acts (which couldn’t have been more different from each other) took the stage, Jessica Lea Mayfield. I enjoyed her melancholic folk sound for the most part, though it seemed a bit out of place when compared to the loud, crunching guitar-driven sound of the Keys. The second act that took the stage offered a completely different sound, something from the far opposite end of the spectrum. While I’m sure Memphis punk-thrash icon Jay Reatard has a niche in the city’s musical landscape, it just escapes me for the most part. They blazed through a 30 minute set with songs only broken by the lead man, Jay, yelling out the names of the tunes in between them. Though it was a bit excruciating, it was short, so I can’t complain too much.

The Black Keys finally hit the stage around 11:00, opening with “Thickfreakness” (I believe, but my memory tends to be faulty and the set list hasn’t been posted anywhere yet). Reverb-soaked riffs filled the theater with their loud, crunching sounds, punctuated periodically by large doses of feedback. With a sound akin to that of the Mississippi Delta cranked to ten with tons of reverb, the guys tore the place down and the sweat-drenched crowd enjoyed every minute of it. I recognized nearly every song they played during their 1.5 hour set. The band tore through tunes like “Stack Shot Billy” and “10 AM Automatic” with a vengeance, Patrick Carney providing rock-steady beat and Dan Auerbach just killing it on guitar. They ended the set with a rousing version of “I Got Mine,” before retreating to the back.

After a short break, the men again emerged to the adoration of the crowd and performed two more stellar cuts – the slower, bluesy “Psychotic Girl”, followed by their final number of the night, the rocking “Have Love, Will Travel” – wrapping up the concert around 12:30 or so. All in all, it was a great show. The crowd was cool, the band was smoking, and, even though I attended the show alone, I had a great time. I heartily recommend seeing them if you ever have the chance.

If you’ve never listened to them before, check out the video below.

More from the Campaign Trail September 25, 2008

Posted by Matt in President 2008.
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I first heard about this via an email update and knew that it would be something that should be posted (even though Elrod did it first on his private blog). The other night John McCain was set to make an appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman, but called it off at the last minute because of his desire to swoop into Washington Superman-like to save the economy. So Dave, with last minute replacement Keith Olbermann, have a little fun at the senator’s expense.

Meanwhile, Sarah Palin may be having some of her own pastor problems. The video below has recently surfaced in which she goes before the congregation to receive a blessing from her pastor, during which he prays for God to send her money and protect her from witchcraft….

Yeah, that’s right…witches… I don’t know about you, but I think, Sarah Palin: Witch Hunter, could make a great comic book or maybe even a television series on the Sci Fi network.

Polling For Truth September 24, 2008

Posted by Matt in President 2008.
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This being an election year, the television news cycles and nearly all publications have become inundated with polling data and statistics, most of which are fairly innocuous, that carry the intent to inform (or perhaps coerce) the average consumer. As a statistician, I am fascinated with polls and numbers and how they are used in public discourse. There are a few pointers to always remember when looking at the reported data:

1. Pay attention to the error. If Obama is leading McCain by 47%-45%, with +/- 3% error, it is a dead heat. If, in the next poll, McCain is now leading 48%-46%, it probably does not show any actual change in the attitude of the general populace. Rather, it is just a random statistical fluctuation.

2. Don’t ever make assumptions based on only one poll. Though statisticians try and poll a solid sample of America, the potential always exists that they could choose more supporters of one candidate over the other, skewing the data.

3. Pay attention to the question asked by the organization giving the poll. Results can be easily manipulated depending on the wording of the question and the order of the choices given.

So, given the way that statistics can be used and misused, the best method for gleaning good information is to look at a cross-section of polling data and pay attention to all aspects of the polls. I’ve done a bit of research, using the data on pollingreport.com, in which I’ve averaged the results from several reports by week, ranging from mid-July to now. This is how it looks so far:

wk1 wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 wk9
McCain 41 43 42 43 43 43 45 46 45
Obama 46 45 47 45 46 49 46 45 47

You can see it in graph format here:
pres-stats

Note: Week 6 was the Democratic National Convention and Week 7 was the Republican. You can see a definite bounce for each of them.

Each week has anywhere from 5 to 10 polls used and, I placed the data for each of these on a normal distribution curve for their respective weeks in order to identify data that may not be good. For instance,
A Fox News poll for September 8-9 showed Obama at only 42%. Given that his mean score for that week was 45% with a standard deviation of 1.5%, we can deduce that this score falls outside of 2 standard deviations, the 95% confidence level.

Does that make sense? I could talk for hours about this, so you may not want me to get started…

Why Do You Vote Republican? September 23, 2008

Posted by Matt in President 2008.
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Not that I would ever condone doing that by any means, but, in case you are looking for some reason to, maybe this video will help…

h/t Meredith

A Stately Personality? September 23, 2008

Posted by Matt in random.
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According to recent study, people from different regions of America tend to have certain personality traits.

For example,
New Mexico has the most Conscientious population
North Dakota is number one for Extroversion and Agreeableness
West Virginia is top for Neruoticism
Washington D.C. residents are the most Open

My home state of Mississippi ranks:
Extraversion: 19
Agreeableness: 3
Conscientiousness: 12
Neuroticism: 4
Openness: 41

if nothing else, it offers an interesting look at our society that further shows the divisions in this country – whether they be urban and rural, rich and poor, or whatever else.

What about you? What do you think of the rankings?