The Winning Fantasy Football Team August 30, 2010
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: draft, fantasy football team, NFL
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Yes, you heard it here first. This year’s winning team in the Viva La Football! league is Wisdom’s Warriorz! Check out my team:
QB: Matt Schaub, Hou
WR: Mike Sims-Walker, Jax
WR: Michael Crabtree, SF
WR: Dez Bryant, Dal
RB: Ray Rice, Bal
RB: Jamaal Charles, KC
TE: Brent Celek, Phi
K: Robbie Gould, Chi
D: Dallas Cowboys
Bench:
QB: Carson Palmer, Cin
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
RB: Montario Hardesty, Cle
RB/WR: Dexter McCluster, KC
WR: Steve Breaston, AZ
WR: Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
What do you think? Am I destined for fantasy glory?
2010 Fantasy Football Analysis: Tight Ends/Defenses August 24, 2010
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: 2010, Antonio Gates, Baltimore, Brent Celek, Dallas Clark, defenses, fantasy football, Green Bay, Jason Witten, New Orleans, NFL, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, tight ends, Vernon Davis
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So far in our annual analysis of the upcoming Fantasy Football season we have looked at what are generally considered the most important fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Today we will quickly review two more selections: tight end and defense.
Tight End
Situations to Avoid
1. Reggie Kelly, Cin
Cincinnati is a veritable dead zone for tight ends, with starter Kelly averaging just over 220 yards per season and scoring a total of one touchdown over the past three years.
2. Leonard Pope, KC
Once upon a time, Kansas City boasted the greatest tight end in pro football. Today they have Pope, who amassed only 174 yards and one touchdown in 2009.
3. Jeff King, Car
As King’s skills deteriorate with age, his numbers (total of 395 yards and 4 touchdowns in two seasons) have become a fantasy liability.
4. Ben Patrick, AZ
Arizona has never really utilized the tight end position in their offensive production, so I doubt we’ll see a huge increase in Patrick’s three season total of 30 receptions for 323 yards.
Top 5 Tight Ends
5. Jason Witten, Dal
Though Witten has proven himself to be one of the most productive tight ends in terms of yards (1,030 in 2009), his touchdown totals have left much to be desired, having only reached the end zone 2 times in 2009. If he can increase his end zone looks in 2010, his ranking should be higher.
4. Brent Celek, Phi
Celek took a huge step forward in his third season as a pro, garnering 971 yards and 8 touchdowns. I expect him to continue to produce excellent numbers in 2010 catching balls from new quarterback Kevin Kolb.
3. Dallas Clark, Ind
Clark is another player who broke through in a big way in 2009, picking up over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns – the best numbers of his career. While it would be difficult for him to reproduce production on the same scale in 2010, I expect him to again be among the elite.
2. Vernon Davis, SF
The 49ers are a team on the way up and the development of Vernon Davis has been a big part of their ascension. Davis put on an incredible display in 2009 with 965 yards and 13 touchdowns and I expect him to do similarly well this season.
1. Antonio Gates, SD
Over the past few seasons, Gates has asserted himself as the top choice among tight ends, taking over the spot that Tony Gonzalez held for so long. One aspect that sets him apart from the others is his consistency. You can be assured that Gates will pick up the requisite 900-1,000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns that he always does.
Defense
Situations to avoid:
1. Jacksonville
There was a time when the Jaguars were year-in-and-year-out one of the strongest defensive squads in the league, but, judging from the last two seasons, the era has passed. In 2009 the Jags had a paltry 14 sacks for the entire season.
2. Kansas City
The Chiefs have been a consistent also-ran on defense and there is no reason to expect anything more than that in 2010. Their 26 turnovers and 22 sacks in 2009 solidified their spot on the bad side of mediocre.
3. Oakland
The Raiders are awful all the way around and, in the same vein, their defense has been a model of consistency. They do have some strong players on their defensive front (Richard Seymour and John Henderson), but their sorry total of 19 turnovers in 2009 is enough to avoid them.
4. Detroit
If you need a measure of how bad the Lions are, take a look at their defensive statistics. Over the past two seasons, they have allowed more than 30 points and nearly 400 yards per game, while only grabbing a two year total of 13 interceptions.
5. St. Louis
Using my fantasy measures, the Rams are one of the few teams that have gotten progressively worse over the past three seasons, bottoming out in 2009 with only 8 interceptions and 25 sacks.
Top 5 Defenses
5. Pittsburgh
The Steelers are loaded on defense again in 2010, with Pro Bowlers all over the place and excellent fantasy stats (an average of 29 turnovers and 49 sacks over the past two seasons). Look for more excellent numbers out of Polamalu’s crew this season.
4. Baltimore
Though the Ravens defensive stars continue to age, their production is among the elite. In 2010, they allowed only 16.3 points per game while grabbing 36 turnovers.
3. New Orleans
Last season’s Super Bowl champs put on a show in 2009, amassing 38 turnovers and 8 defensive touchdowns. Though it will be difficult for the Saints to replicate numbers like those in 2010, they should continue to be one of the best squads in the league.
2. Philadelphia
The Eagles have established themselves as one of the best defensive teams over the past two seasons, with 36 turnovers and 44 sacks in 2009 alone. This season they should again prove themselves to be one of the best units around.
1. Green Bay
While their squad was very good in the years prior, the Packers defense leapt to the top of the heap in 2009 with an incredible performance (18.6 pts/game, 284 yds/game, 40 turnovers, 37 sacks, and 4 defensive touchdowns). Look for Green Bay to continue to excel on the gridiron in 2010.
Thoughts?
2010 Fantasy Football Analysis – Wide Receivers August 19, 2010
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: 2010, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, fantasy football, Larry Fitgerald, Miles Austin, NFL, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, running backs, Simeon Rice
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In the first two installments of our 2010 fantasy football preview we looked at the positions of running back and quarterback. Today we move on to the next important spot – wide receiver.
There aren’t really any situations to avoid for receivers because you generally need at least three of them on a fantasy team and every NFL team has at least one that is worth being picked up. This list will be dedicated to the teams whose receivers you do not want to count on as a first or second option from week to week.
1. Oakland
The Raiders’ top returning wide receiver, Chaz Schilens, has a total of only 591 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Couple that with the all-around awfulness of the team and you quickly realize there is no one here to rely on.
2. Cleveland
The Browns seem destined for the cellar this season and their top two receivers, Joshua Cribbs (135 yards and 1 TD in 2009) and Mohamed Massaquoi (624 yards and 3 TDs in 2009) will do little to help them climb out.
3. Tampa Bay
With an underperforming veteran (Maurice Stovall) and a rookie (Mike Williams) set to start, the Bucs will not be much of a force through the air in 2010.
4. St. Louis
Mediocre receivers (Laurent Robinson, Donnie Avery) and a rookie quarterback equal little airborne offensive firepower for the rams.
5. Seattle
The Seahawks will begin the year with two past-their-prime targets (TJ Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch) and an aging quarterback, so don’t look for much in the way of offensive production.
Five players/situations with potential – none of the following athletes made my top ten, but all of them could be there by the end of the year.
1. Chad Ochocinco/Terrell Owens, Cin
The Bengals swung for the fences this year in the offseason, picking up one ultra-talented potential headache in Owens to add to the one already in place in Ochocinco. If they can play well together, this could be a killer combination. If not, it could fail miserably.
2. Anguan Boldin, Bal
For years the Ravens have been a team built around their defense, keeping around only enough offensive firepower to win games. This season, though, with the additions of Boldin and Donte Stallworth, Baltimore seems ready to open things up a bit. Boldin could be a valuable addition to any team if that happens.
3. Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem, NO
Though the Saints have a quarterback who puts up some of the best passing numbers in the NFL, the fantasy values of the receivers are lower than would normally be expected. Because this trio along with TE Jeremy Shockey are so talented, they tend to leech catches from each other and thus hurt the number of fantasy points scored. Colston is the obvious choice, but Meacher also put up excellent numbers in his second year as a pro and Henderson is no slouch either.
4. Percy Harvin, Min
With Brett Favre back in the saddle, Harvin could be set for a big 2010, but due to the fact that he will be a second option behind Simeon Rice, his value may be a bit lower. He’s definitely worth a pick, but not as a top choice.
5. Vincent Jackson, SD
Jackson is a lock for putting up good numbers, but due to his preseason holdout, it remains to be seen how effective or for that matter, present, he will be in the upcoming season.
Now for the Top 10…
10. Calvin Johnson, Det
Johnson is, without a doubt, an immensely talented wide receiver, but in 2009 his numbers (984 yards, 5 TDs) took a dip with then-rookie QB Matthew Stafford. This season the Lions are still not a particularly good football team, but Stafford has a year under his belt and the draft addition of Jahvid Best should help to take some of the pressure off the passing game. I expect Johnson to bounce back this season and again show himself to be among the best in the league.
9. Brandon Marshall, Mia
An incredible talent with a penchant for injuries and bad personal decisions, Marshall is a bit of a wild card in 2010. If he can stay healthy and keep out of trouble, his first season in Miami could be a huge one. Marshall has caught over 100 balls in each of the past three seasons, and racked up over 3,700 yards and 23 touchdowns, making him one of the most consistent wideouts in the league. This could be his biggest year yet.
8. Reggie Wayne, Ind
The high-powered Colts offense thrives on its Peyton Manning-helmed passing attack and for the past few years Reggie Wayne has been on the receiving end of the vast majority of those balls. At age 31 Wayne shows little sign of slowing down, so there is no reason to think he will not pull in another great season similar to the last one (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs).
6. Roddy White, Atl
Roddy White has been a consistently good receiver for the past few years, pulling in 80-90 catches per season for around 1,200 yards each time, but 2009 was the first time he caught double digit touchdown passes (11), QB Matt Ryan has another year of experience, so expect him to be a sharper passes and White will no doubt be one of the main recipients of his well-honed skill.
5. Randy Moss, NE
At 33, Moss isn’t getting any younger and his skills will no doubt soon take a bit of a dive, but his 1,264 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 have helped maintain his position as an elite receiver. With the great Tom Brady at QB and Wes Welker and Torry Holt to keep some of the heat off him, Moss should again shine for the Patriots.
4. Simeon Rice, Min
I’d bet there was probably nobody who wanted Brett Favre to come back in 2010 more than Rice. I mean, if you were a budding star receiver who would you rather catch passes from? The rocket arm of Brett Favre or that of Tavarius Jackson? Exactly. Rice put up over 1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009 and I expect nothing less than that in 2010.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, AZ
It remains to be seen whether or not Fitzgerald will be able to thrive without fellow receiver Anguan Boldin lined up across the field, able to take some of the heat off him. Even when sharing receptions with Boldin, Fitzgerald was able to grab 90-100 balls and score double-digit touchdowns each season, so without him Fitz’s role will grow even more important. One also must keep in mind the fact that the disappointing Matt Leinart will take over at QB this season, which could adversely affect his numbers and admittedly caused me to drop him from the second spot to the third.
2. Miles Austin, Dal
Austin emerged in 2009 as the Cowboys’ top receiving threat, garnering 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns, and this season he looks poised to best those numbers. The addition of rookie WR Dez Bryant gives the ‘Boys a viable second threat, which should help free Austin to flourish with QB Tony Romo. Believe me, Miles Austin will be the man in the big D this season.
1. Andre Johnson, Hou
Andre Johnson is the premier receiver working in the NFL today. He has caught over 100 passes and racked up more than 1,500 yards in each of the past two seasons while scoring a total of 17 touchdowns. QB Matt Schaub really came into his own in 2009 and I fully expect the Schaub-Johnson combination to be even bigger this season. Houston is a team ready to take a big step in 2010 and it all starts here with their best player. Look for him to deliver, big time.
2010 Fantasy Football Analysis – Running Backs August 17, 2010
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, fantasy football, Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, NFL, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, running backs, Steven Jackson
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Last week we began our look at the upcoming Fantasy Football season by analyzing the most visible position, Quarterback. Today we will move forward with a discussion of the position often seen as the most important in a fantasy league, running back.
Five Situations to Avoid
1. New England
The Patriots may be the best team of the last decade, but their success was certainly not built around their adequate, but unspectacular, running game. They enter 2010 with another platoon of decent running backs that includes Laurence Maroney, 32 year old Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin “The Lesser” Faulk. The four backs will most likely split time, so none of them are worth a spot higher than a 3rd or 4th RB spot.
2. Oakland
It pains me to watch one of the greatest running backs in Arkansas Razorback history struggle with an inept team and nagging injuries, but two seasons into his career, Darren McFadden is already looking like a has-been. This season the Raiders have ditched last year’s starter, Justin Fargas, leaving the reins to McFadden and Michael Bush, neither of which has exactly lit the bay area up. Avoid them unless you need a late draft back-up.
3. Chicago
In 2009 there was probably no player more frustrating to fantasy owners than Matt Forte, who followed up a spectacular rookie season (1,238 yards, 12 TDs) with a mediocre-at-best sophomore run (929 yards, 4 TDs). Unless Forte makes a big comeback push this season, he will again struggle behind an average Bear offensive line.
4. Tampa Bay
Cadillac Williams was once a promising NFL star for the Buccaneers (1,178 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie in 2005), but soon his career turned into an injury-plagued mess (an average of 515 yards and 3 TDs, with a yards per rush below 4, over the next 4 seasons). With 30 year old Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham filling out the stable, don’t expect much from the Bucs’ running game.
5. Seattle
The Seahawks brought in Leon Washington to push last season’s lackluster starting running back, Julius Jones, but behind a bad offensive line neither of them are destined to have a good year. On a positive note, second year player Justin Forsett played pretty well last season, but he is currently mired in the third spot on the depth chart.
Five players with potential – none of the following athletes made my top ten, but all ten have the potential to be there by the end of the year.
1. Shonn Greene, NYJ
Greene came on strong at the end of 2009 as the now-departed Thomas Jones’ back up and, given that the Jets have an excellent offensive line, many are predicting great things from him this season. While I certainly expect to see him improve, the increase in his numbers will depend greatly on the amount of time he will have to share with newly acquired veteran Ladanian Tomlinson.
2. Time Hightower/Beanie Wells, AZ
With few exceptions, running back stables are generally fantasy killers and Arizona displays one more instance in which talented backs cede carries to each other and decrease their personal statistics. Together Hightower and Wells racked up 1,391 rushing yards, 571 receiving yards, and 15 TDs – Pro Bowl numbers for a single back, but terribly frustrating when split between two.
3. Ryan Mathews, SD
Rookie running back Ryan Mathews has been given the unenviable task of picking up the mantle of one of the best running backs in a generation, Ladanian Tomlinson, but it is my feeling that he will shine behind the Chargers’ decent offensive line. If Mathews was not a rookie, I would probably have included him in my top ten, but as it is, you should seriously consider picking him up.
4. Felix Jones/Marion Barber, Dal
The Cowboys have yet another running back by committee situation, but according to sources, they seem convinced that Felix Jones will be their top choice in 2010. Adding the talented Tashard Choice to the mix complicates things even further and one can’t help but wonder how Dallas will distribute carries in a way that will pacify everyone.
5. Knowshon Moreno, Correl Buckhalter, Lendale White, Justin Fargas, Den
With the exception of second year player Moreno (who many thought underachieved as a rookie in 2009), the Broncos’ stable of running backs looks more like a retirement home for players who are past their prime. Though it remains to be seen how they will split carries between Moreno and the veterans, one thing is for certain: be wary when choosing a Denver back.
And now on to the top 10:
10. Steven Jackson, StL
You can’t help but feel bad for Steven Jackson. It must be tough to be one of the best backs in the league and to be stuck on the worst team, one that has won a grand total of six games in the past three seasons. Jackson is a great runner and an excellent receiver, but lacks the offensive line power to get into the end zone on a regular basis – he only scored 4 touchdowns in 2009 and hasn’t had double figure touchdowns since 2006. He is definitely a good draft choice in the first two rounds, particularly for his yardage totals.
9. Frank Gore, SF
I’ve never been a big believer in Frank Gore as an elite fantasy running back, but after putting up some of the best numbers of his career in 2009 (over 1,500 total yards, 13 TDs), I may have to eat my words. The sudden departure of backup Glen Coffee will probably mean even more work for Gore, so if he can handle it, this could be his best season yet. The 49ers are a team on the rise and he will be a big part of their success.
8. DeAngelo Williams, Car
I generally advise people to stay away from running back by committee situations, but Carolina gets a special exemption in my book. Last season the Panthers fielded two 1,000 yard rushers in DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart and I expect them to dominate again in 2010. DeAngelo is a special player who would have put up even bigger numbers last season if he had not missed three games for an injury. Over the past two seasons, he has accumulated more than 3,000 total yards and 27 touchdowns and at only age 27, he has a lot of miles left to go.
7. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit
In his second season, Mendenhall took over and solidified his starting role with the Steelers, racking up over 1,300 total yards and 8 touchdowns. In 2010, his main RB competition, former starter Willie Parker, is gone, as is the team’s top receiver and their starting quarterback (for the first six games). Thus, the team will be leaning heavily on Mendenhall to carry them through the first half of the season, so he should pick up a ton of touches. The team may be bad, but he’ll have decent stats.
6. Jamaal Charles, KC
Over the past decade, the Chiefs have developed a reputation for stellar running back play with greats like Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, so fans waited with bated breath for the next elusive runner to appear on the gridiron. The wait is over. Jamaal Charles showed last year (over 1,400 total yards, 8 TDs, and a whopping 5.9 yards/rush average) that he is up to the challenge. I expect him to continue the trend in his third season and firmly place himself among the league’s elite.
5. Michael Turner, Atl
It is important that we remember that backs who have over 350 rushes in a season are always more prone to injury and lower numbers in the following years. This adage proved to be true again in 2009 when Turner’s numbers dipped from 2008 (376 rushes, 1,699 yards, 17 TDs in 16 games) to 2009 (178 rushes, 871 yards, 10 TDs in 11 games). This season he should bounce back to a level better than 2009, but I would not expect him to have as many touches as he did in 2008.
4. Adrian Peterson, Min
Peterson is one of the most sought after backs in fantasy football for a good reason. In his first three seasons in the NFL, the young back has accumulated over 5,300 total yards and 41 touchdowns and is a lock for 300+ carries in a season. The presence of Brett Favre is a major boon to his performance as well because it takes some of the weight off his shoulders. Rookie Tobey Gerhart may steal a few carries, but it will surely not be enough to make a large difference in Peterson’s performance.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax
Jones-Drew did an excellent job in his first season as the featured back for the Jaguars, picking up over 1,700 total yards and 16 TDs while carrying the team on his back. In 2010 I expect to see his elite numbers improve even more as he becomes more accustomed to his role as a number one running back. The overall improvement of Jacksonville will also play a major part in his continuing development as one of the best players in the NFL.
2. Ray Rice, Bal
Ray Rice came out strong in 2009 with over 2,000 yards of total offense and 8 touchdowns, numbers he accumulated despite the presence of Willis McGahee taking away many goal line carries. With a top notch offensive line and a greatly improved passing game to take some of the heat off him, I expect Rice to reach even greater heights in 2010, especially if he gets more looks on the goal line than last season.
1. Chris Johnson, Ten
I was a bit hesitant to place Johnson at the top of the list because, though he believes he will put up even better numbers than he did in 2009 (over 2,500 total yards and 16 TDs), history says that we will see a dip in performance. Regardless, based on last year’s dominance, Johnson is now the premier back in the NFL. Even with the expected decrease he could and probably should be the top rated back again in 2010. The Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and quarterback Vince Young is proving to be more reliable, which will only help Johnson as defenses key in on him from week one.
Thoughts?
2010 Fantasy Football Analysis – Quarterbacks August 12, 2010
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, fantasy football, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, NFL, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, quarterbacks, rankings, Tom Brady, Tony Romo
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With the football season looming ever closer, it is time to take a look at one of my favorite pastimes over the past 15 years or so – fantasy football. Everyone knows that I’m a total nerd when it comes to statistics, so it follows that the intricate numbers of fantasy sports are right up my alley. Each year I’ve done an analysis for readers of this blog and 2010 will be no different, so today we begin with the most visible of positions – quarterback.
Five situations to avoid:
1. Denver
The Broncos currently have the woefully mediocre Kyle Orton listed as their starting quarterback, but directly behind him they have both an under-performing former first round draft pick (Brady Quinn) and the messiah from the swamp, Tim Tebow. My guess is that they will split time this season, thus rendering all of them useless in a fantasy league.
2. Pittsburgh
With Ben Roethlisberger suspended for the first six games of the season, the Steelers have turned to the scrap heap for a new leader, emerging with Byron Leftwich. I think that’s all you need to know.
3. Oakland
I know it sounds like a broken record to say year after year that there is no Raider worth taking, but, again, thee is no need to waste a draft pick on Oakland – not even on new quarterback Jason Campbell, who proved to be rather competent during his time in Washington.
4. St. Louis
I know it is tempting to take the top draft pick of 2010, Sam Bradford, but take my advice and don’t do it. The Rams are excruciatingly bad and Bradford will be little more than an injury-prone tackling dummy.
5. Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman? Who the heck is Josh Freeman? If you ask that question too, avoid him at all costs.
Five players with potential – none of the following athletes made my top ten, but all ten have the potential to be there by the end of the year.
1. Joe Flacco, Bal
Flacco took great strides forward during his second year in the league and this season, with the addition of WR Anguan Boldin, he is poised to break through in an even bigger way. Not known for having a high-flying offense, it remains to be seen if Flacco’s numbers will greatly improve.
2. Jay Cutler, Chi
Cutler has few offensive weapons around him and the Bears’ offense is mediocre at best, so why should he be considered a possible fantasy winner? Four words: offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Martz was the guy behind the high-flying Rams offense of ten years ago, so, if nothing else, Cutler will have the opportunity to sling the ball around as much as he wants.
3. Donovan McNabb, Was
McNabb has proven himself to be a good fantasy option over the years, transforming himself from a running QB to an excellent drop-back passer without hardly missing a beat. This season marks his first in Washington and we’ll just say that he has his work cut out for him. Judging from history, though, he could be a steal.
4. Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Sanchez struggled through his rookie season in 2009, amassing 20 interceptions against only 12 touchdowns, but the Jets decided not to rest on their laurels during the offseason, choosing instead to bolster their receiving corps with Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. So, there are plenty of good reasons to think of Sanchez at draft time.
5. Alex Smith, SF
Former number one draft pick Alex Smith finally showed up last season, proving his worth for the 49ers while putting up the best numbers of his career. This season he’ll have WR Michael Crabtree for the entire season, meaning that we should see even better things from him.
So, without further ado, here are my top QB picks for 2010.
Top Ten Quarterbacks
10. Carson Palmer, Cin
The sometimes fragile Palmers saw his numbers decline somewhat in 2009, causing everyone to wonder if the days of the high-octane Bengal offense were gone. Then came the offseason when they picked up 1,000 yard receiver Antonio Bryant and the generally great Terrell Owens, to team with Chad Ochocinco. With this many good targets Palmer is almost certain to have a good season.
9. Matt Ryan, Atl
With two years under his belt and great receiving targets in Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, the young and talented Ryan should have an excellent 2010 and improve on the 22 TDs he threw for last time around. Look for good things from him in 2010 and great things in the future.
8. Tony Romo, Dal
Romo has been one of the most steady fantasy quarterback around over the past few years, posting 26 or more touchdowns in each of the last three seasons and breaking 4,000 yards in two of them. The emergence of Miles Austin as a top receiving threat and the first round draft choice of Dez Bryant means that Romo is destined for another big year.
7. Brett Favre, Min
The will-he-or-won’t-he Favre circus continued again this offseason before he finally squashed all rumors to the contrary and declared that he would again don the purple and gold of the Vikings. In 2009 the 40 year old Favre defied father time and threw for a spectacular 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, leading Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game. This season, the team stayed intact for another go at a championship and, barring injury, Favre should again have great numbers.
6. Matt Schaub, Hou
In 2009 Matt Schaub finally showed himself to be one of the elite quarterbacks playing today, completing a league leading 396 passes for 4,770 yards. It doesn’t hurt to have one of the top receivers in the NFL (Andre Johnson) to toss the pigskin to either and expect the two of them to hook up many, many more times again in 2010.
5. Tom Brady, NE
With three Super Bowl championships under his belt and loads of individual accolades, Brady is one of the premier signal-callers of a generation. In 2007 and 2009 (he missed almost all of 08 due to injury), he threw for more than 9,000 yards and 78 touchdowns, and, barring injury, he should again put up excellent stats in the coming season. Randy Moss is aging but still effective and Wes Welker remains a pass-catching machine, so the weapons are in place for Brady to again position himself as one of the best in the league.
4. Philip Rivers, SD
While the departure of the great Ladanian Tomlinson would dismay many teams and players, it could be the best thing that ever happened to Rivers. If nothing else, this will cause the focus of the offense to switch from running to passing, meaning that his excellent numbers could improve even more. Over the past two seasons, Rivers has thrown for a total of more than 8,200 yards and 62 touchdowns and this season could be better than either of those.
3. Peyton Manning, Ind
Along with the aforementioned Tom Brady, Manning is a quintessential quarterback of an era. His consistency is unmatched, throwing for more than 4,000 yards in 10 of his 12 career seasons and never throwing for less than 26 touchdowns. Though he is now in his mid-30’s, Manning should still have a few elite seasons left in him and I expect him to light up the scoreboard numerous times again in 2010.
2. Drew Brees, NO
Brees is ten years into his excellent career, one in which he has earned a Super Bowl title and numerous awards, yet 2010 could be one of his greatest seasons yet. With a newly found championship swagger and a fantastic receiving corps lead by Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, Brees may even improve on the 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns he racked up in 2009.
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
It was a toss-up for the top spot between Rodgers and Brees, but I chose due to the fact that he his a few years younger than Brees (26 vs. 31), a good deal more mobile (316 rushing yards and 5 TDs in 2009), and he has most likely not hit his career ceiling. In 2009, Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns, while only tossing 7 interceptions. 30 TDs vs. 7 Ints is a heck of a ratio and that accuracy is one of the main reasons why I’m choosing him as my number one choice in 2010.
Thoughts?
Fantasy Football 2010 August 11, 2010
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: fantasy football, NFL
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I’ve created a fantasy football league and you are all invited to join. Let me know if you want to play.
Also, I will be doing my Fantasy Football guide and season predictions soon. Stay Tuned!
My Fantasy Football Teams August 31, 2009
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: draft, fantasy football, picks
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In the past week I’ve taken part in two fantasy football drafts and, since I know you are all dying to find out, these were my picks.
Team: Far Left Wackos (8th pick of 10)
QB: Tony Romo, Dal
WR: Anguan Boldin, AZ
WR: Chad Ochocinco, Cin
WR: Bernard Berrian, Min
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Car
RB: Chris Johnson, Ten
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe, Min
K: John Kasay, Car
D: New England
BN: Darren McFadden (RB, Oak)
BN: Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Ind)
BN: Lance Moore (WR, NO)
BN: Larry Johnson (RB, KC)
BN: Trent Edwards (QB, Buf)
BN: Jeremy Maclin (WR, Phi)
Team: Fightin’ Pacifists (4th pick of 10)
QB: Aaron Rodgers, GB
WR: Marques Colston, NO
WR: Vincent Jackson, SD
WR: Santonio Holmes, Pit
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Car
RB: Steve Slaton, Hou
TE: Kevin Boss, NYG
K: Kris Brown, Hou
Def: New England
BN: Carson Palmer (QB, Cin)
BN: Pierre Thomas (RB, NO)
BN: Knowshon Moreno (RB, Den)
BN: Donald Brown (RB, Ind)
BN: Bernard Berrian (WR, Min)
BN: Nate Washington (WR, Ten)
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Wide Receivers August 25, 2009
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: 2009, fantasy football, NFL, rankings, wide receiver
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Over the past 12-13 years or so, fantasy football has become one of my favorite annual pastimes. With a mathematically-inclined mind and a great love for the game of football, the coupling just seems to be natural. Each year I give my top ranked players by position and 2009 will be no different. These are based on a combination of my statistical forecasts and expert opinions from various magazines I look at throughout the summer. If anyone out there would like to join my league please let me know. We still have two spots open.
While they are important pieces to the fantasy puzzle, the wide receiver is perhaps the most unpredictable position on a week-to-week basis. Though they can pick up points through both yardage and touchdowns, they touch the ball far less than a running back, which gives them fewer chances to rack up large amounts of fantasy points. Nevertheless, a good receiver is an important tool in one’s arsenal and they can make or break a team.
WRs to Stay Away From
Braylon Edwards, Cle – In 2007, Edwards looked as though he could be the next big WR in the league, amassing 1,289 yards and 16 TDs. Last year, though, things came crashing back to earth for the young man and his production fell off considerably for a terrible Browns team. He may be worth a late round pick, but definitely should not be looked to as a starter.
Anyone from St. Louis – Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery are listed at the top of the Rams’ depth chart. Never heard of them? Me neither and the Rams are awful, so stay far, far away.
WRs to Watch
Bernard Berrian, Min – The addition of future-Hall of Famer Brett Favre has dramatically changed the look of the Viking offense, especially the passing game. Berrian is currently listed at the WR1 position, so I would expect to see a large increase in production for him with Favre playing the role of gunslinger.
Anthony Gonzalez, Ind – With Peyton Manning and a high octane Colts passing attack, Gonzalez steps into the role of WR2 in this, his third season, and we can safely assume that his numbers will improve dramatically from last season’s 664 yards and 4 TDs.
15. Chad Ochocinco, Cin – The artist formerly known as Chad Johnson again enters the year as QB Carson Palmer’s top target in the high powered Bengals offense. Though he disappointed in 2008 after Palmer went down with an injury, garnering only 540 yards and 4 TDs, his production should pick back up this season. He’s temperamental and carries some risk, but I expect him to return to his pre-2008 form in 2009. My Prediction: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 7 TDs.
14. Vince Jackson, SD – Jackson broke through in 2008 with the best season of his young career, picking up almost 1100 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has the luxury of playing with an elite young quarterback in Philip Rivers and with a strong running game that helps keep some of the heat off of the passing game. I expect Jackson to continue to improve and to be another great weapon for a strong offensive squad. My Prediction: 70 catches, 1200 yards, 9 TDs
13. Wes Welker, NE – Welker is Mr. Consistency for another top-notch Patriot team. Welker excelled in 2007 with Tom Brady at QB and in 2008 when Brady was out with injury, so he should again put up nice numbers, particularly when it comes to the number of receptions (223 over the past two years). My prediction: 110 catches, 1200 yards, 7 TDs
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC – Though new coach Todd Haley demoted Bowe to third team because of his work ethic, logic says that he will be back in the starting lineup by Opening Day. The arrival of QB Matt Cassel and the departure of future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez leave Bowe as the sole proven passing target, meaning that he should again put up excellent numbers. My prediction: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 9 TDs
11. Terrell Owens, Buf – At 35 and starting over with a new team, how much gas does Owens have left in the tank? He remains both an incredibly gifted and divisive figure in the NFL who should do well lined up with a talented young receiver for the Bills, Lee Evans. I expect at least one more productive season out of Owens, especially when it comes to end zone catches. My Prediction: 75 catches, 1100 yards, 12 TDs
10. Anguan Boldin, AZ – Though he shares passes with two 1,000+ yard receivers – Larry Fitzgerald and Sean Breaston – Boldin continues to put up excellent numbers for the Cardinals’ high-octane passing attack. With a resurgent Kurt Warner at quarterback and a pass-first playbook, I expect him to continue to be a big time fantasy player. My Prediction: 95 catches, 1200 yards, 10 TDs
9. Marques Colston, NO – Being the top target for the best quarterback in the league has its privileges. Colston’s excellent 2007 campaign (1202 yards and 11 TDs) was unfortunately followed by an injury-plagued ’08, in which he only played in 11 of 16 games. This season, barring another injury, I expect Colson to return to his form of two years ago. My prediction: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 10 TDs.
8. Roddy White, Atl – For the past two seasons, Roddy White has proved himself to be an excellent NFL receiver, picking up more than 2500 yards on 171 catches. QB Matt Ryan had a great rookie campaign and should continue to improve this year with White as his top target. The addition of TE Tony Gonzalez will only help improve White’s stock as some of the heat gets taken off of him. My Prediction: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 9 TDs
7. Steve Smith, Car – Despite the fact that the Panthers are an obvious run-first team with a quarterback on the downside of his career, Smith remains an excellent option at wide receiver. He should continue to excel as Carolina’s lone viable option in the passing game. My Prediction: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 8 TDs
6. Reggie Wayne, Ind – Marvin Harrison is gone, so now Wayne has officially taken on the mantle of Peyton Manning’s favorite target in Indy’s high-powered offense. The capable Anthony Gonzalez takes over the second option where he should serve to take some of the coverage off Wayne. My Prediction: 90 catches, 1300 yards, 10 TDs.
5. Greg Jennings, GB – Jennings is an excellent young receiver for the Packers with a huge amount of potential. Last season he and the aging Donald Driver split catches from QB Aaron Rodgers, but in 2009 I expect Jennings to shoulder the majority of the load, thus improving even more on his excellent 2008 numbers (1292 yards and 9 TDs). My Prediction: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 11 TDs.
4. Calvin Johnson, Det – The loan bright spot in the fantasy world for the lowly Lions, Johnson really broke through in 2008, his second season, as an elite NFL receiver. Regardless of who ends up as the starting QB, whether it be veteran Daunte Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford, Johnson should continue to get plenty of touches and will put up huge numbers again in 2009. You just can’t help but wonder how great he would be if he were on a decent team. My Prediction: 90 catches, 1500 yards, 14 TDs
3. Andre Johnson, Hou – With great young players like Johnson, Matt Shaub, and Steve Slaton, the Texan offense is on the rise and all three are poised for excellent campaigns in 2009. Johnson has proven himself to be among the league’s elite over his career and I expect him to astound again this season. My prediction: 110 catches, 1600 yards, 11 TDs
2. Randy Moss, NE – After a career rebirth of sorts in 2007, his first season as a Patriot, he and Tom Brady combined forces and to rack up nearly 1500 yards and a whopping 23 touchdowns. Following Brady’s injury, last year was a huge disappointment for Moss, so it remains to be seen whether or not he can return to the elite level of two years ago. At age 32 and with a top-notch offense around him, I expect Moss to come back strong this season. My prediction: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 15 TDs.
1. Larry Fitzgerald, AZ – At this moment, Fitzgerald is without a doubt the best receiver in the league. He has flourished in the pass-happy Cardinal offense, catching 196 balls for 2,840 yards over the past two seasons, and he is only 26. Sure, he is counting on a 38 year old quarterback to deliver him the ball, but I think Fitzgerald is talented enough to catch 90+ balls regardless of who throws them, even if it is the underachieving Matt Leinart. My prediction: 100 catches, 1500 yards, 14 TDs.
Thoughts?
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Running Backs August 18, 2009
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: 2009, fantasy football, NFL, rankings, running backs
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Over the past 12-13 years or so, fantasy football has become one of my favorite annual pastimes. With a mathematically-inclined mind and a great love for the game of football, the coupling just seems to be natural. Each year I give my top ranked players by position and 2009 will be no different. These are based on a combination of my statistical forecasts and expert opinions from various magazines I look at throughout the summer. If anyone out there would like to join my league please let me know.
See last week’s entry on Quarterbacks.
The running back is widely considered to be the most important position on a fantasy team, mainly because of the consistently high point production of the best RBs. They can pick up yardage and touchdowns on the ground or through the air, making them the best of double threats. A great running back can make a contender out of even the most mediocre fantasy team. So, as promised, here are my running back rankings.
RBs to Stay Away From
Thomas Jones, NYJ – I realize that last season was one of the most productive of Jones’ career, but he is 31 this season, an age at which the effectiveness of running backs takes a nosedive.
Joseph Addai, Ind – Addai was a huge disappointment in 2008, a year in which many, including myself, thought that he would take off. The Colts also selected RB Donald Brown in this season’s draft, showing just how little confidence they have in Addai, so you shouldn’t be confident in him either.
Larry Johnson, KC – In 2005 and 2006, Johnson was the most productive back in the league, picking up more than 3500 yards rushing, 750 yards receiving, and scoring 40 touchdowns. Since the 752 carries of those two seasons his production has dropped off dramatically and there is no reason to believe it will pick up again this year.
Running Backs by Committee – A team that chooses to give a large amount of carries to two or more running backs may be playing smart football, but it doesn’t make for good fantasy choices. RBs from teams like New England and Baltimore should be avoided as a number one option.
RBs to Keep an Eye On
Knowshon Moreno, Den – Denver is a running back factory with great linemen that can turn nearly anyone into a 1,000 yard rusher. This rookie will be splitting time with two veterans, Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan, but he should eventually become the full time starter.
Jonathan Stewart, Car – Stewart should steal enough carries from DeAngelo Williams to make him a viable backup running back and, if something happened to Williams, Stewart could be one of the most valuable players on the board.
Pierre Thomas, NO – Thomas worked his way into a spot as the top back for the Saints last season after picking up over 900 total yards and 12 touchdowns on only 160 touches. I only expect him to improve in this, his third, season.
Chris Wells, AZ
This talented rookie comes into a very good, but running game-starved, Super Bowl-runner up Cardinals team. If Wells can win the starting job from Tim Hightower, watch out.
15. Ronnie Brown, Mia – While splitting time with veteran Ricky Williams last season, Brown amassed 1,200 total yards and 10 TDs for a surprising Miami Dolphins squad. This season Williams will be 32, so I would expect him to give up a few more carries to Brown and for this to be his best season yet.
My Prediction: 1,300 total yards, 9 TDs
14. Frank Gore, SF – Following his great performance in 2006 (2100+ total yards, 9 TDs), Gore has proven himself to be an adequate back, perhaps good enough for a RB2 or bench position on a fantasy team. The offensive line of the 49ers is again pretty terrible, so I wouldn’t expect anything too special from Gore in 2009.
My Prediction: 1,400 total yards, 8 TDs
13. Clinton Portis, Was – Portis is once again an above-average back on an average team who will have another fine, but not spectacular, year. He will lose some carries to Ladell Betts, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2006 when Portis was hurt, but will still receive the vast majority for a team that will lean heavily on its running game to compensate for Jason Campbell’s mediocre play at QB.
My Prediction: 1,500 total yards, 10 TDs
12. Brian Westbrook, Phi – Westbrook has been a favorite target of Donovan McNabb in the past and, though the emergence of WR DeSean Jackson last season may mean a few less balls thrown his way, he should still get plenty of touches. He will also be 30 this season which will most likely mean the beginning of a decline in his numbers. He remains one of the best dual threat running backs in the league, though, and I expect good numbers for at least one more season.
My Prediction: 1,300 total yards, 12 TDs
11. Steven Jackson, StL – As the Rams have gone downhill, so have Jackson’s numbers over the past two seasons. He has also missed 4 games in each of the past two years, which also helped to decrease his overall numbers. Though the team will still be awful in 2009, if he stays healthy for a full 16 games, Jackson is capable of putting up great numbers again.
My Prediction: 1,600 total yards, 10 TDs
10. Marion Barber, Dal – Barber has never shown himself to be an every down back, but inside the red zone he’s a monster. With the departure of Terrell Owens, the Cowboy passing game may be hurting a bit more this season, meaning that they will rely more on a running game led by Barber and Felix Jones. I expect Barber to have a few more carries in the past and to continue to be the go-to guy on the goaline.
My Prediction: 1,400 total yards, 14 TDs
9. Brian Jacobs, NYG – The Giants have no proven receivers, so their offense will lean heavily on a good running game behind a top-notch offensive line. Jacobs, who broke the 1,000 yard barrier in each of the past two seasons, will lead the charge again this time around.
My Prediction: 1,300 total yards, 15 TDs.
8. Chris Johnson, Ten – As a rookie in 2008, Johnson broke through in a big way for the Titans, picking up nearly 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns while splitting time with LenDale White. This season, behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, I expect him to continue to improve the fortunes of a great running team.
My Prediction: 1,700 total yards, 14 TDs
7. Ladanian Tomlinson, SD – Tomlinson showed the first decline in his career in 2008, dipping to a pedestrian average of 3.8 yards per carry, and now that he is over the age of 30 I only expect his numbers to continue to slide. He should continue to play at a high level this year, but his days as one of the top fantasy players in the league are officially over.
My Prediction: 1,500 total yards, 15 TDs
6. Steve Slaton, Hou – Expectations are high for Slaton in his upcoming second season after a stellar rookie campaign that resulted in more than 1,600 total yards and 10 touchdowns. He is an exceptional weapon for a Texan team that is on the rise and I expect him to improve on 2008, further cementing his place as one of the premier young backs in the league.
My Prediction: 1,800 total yards, 14 TDs
5. DeAngelo Williams, Car – This former University of Memphis star finally broke into the big time in 2008, his third season as a pro, during which he was responsible for more than 1,600 yards and 20 TDs. The Panthers again have a superb offensive line, so even though he will split carries with Jonathan Stewart, another extremely talented and young back, Williams should again shine in 2009.
My Prediction: 1,600 total yards, 15 TDs
4. Matt Forte, Chi – Forte is another second year player that burst onto the scene in a huge way in 2008, garnering more than 1,700 total yards and 12 TDs for the Bears. The addition of Jay Cutler at quarterback adds another dimension to the Bears’ oftentimes one-track attack and should take some of the pressure off Forte, which will only serve to improve his play in ’09.
My Prediction: 1,800 total yards, 15 TDs
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax – After sharing the rushing duties with Fred Taylor for the past three seasons, Jones-Drew will be taking the spotlight in 2009 as the feature back for the Jaguars. He is an excellent scorer and a great dual-threat back who should put up monster numbers this season as his team’s primary offensive weapon.
My Prediction: 1,600 total yards, 16 TDs
2. Michael Turner, Atl – Turner is proof that toiling in a backup role for the first few seasons of your career is not a bad thing at all, especially when one is learning from a back as great as Ladanian Tomlinson. Turner has learned well, too, as evidenced by his monster performance in 2008, his first as a premier back (over 1,700 total yards, 17 TDs). Atlanta is one of the all-around best teams in the league and Turner is one of the biggest reasons for that. Look for big things in 2009.
My Prediction: 1,800 total yards, 17 TDs
1. Adrian Peterson, Min – I would just like for the record to show that I also chose Peterson as the top running back last summer, prior to his monster performance in 2008. In his two NFL seasons Peterson has racked up almost 3,500 yards and 23 touchdowns and I expect his dominance to carry over again into the coming year. With Tavarius Jackson still at QB and a huge offensive line to clear his way you can be sure that Peterson is going to get a lot of carries. He is your number one fantasy pick of 2009.
My Prediction: 2,000 total yards, 16 TDs
Thoughts?
2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks August 11, 2009
Posted by Matt in fantasy football.Tags: 2009, fantasy football, NFL, quarterbacks, rankings, top ten
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Over the past 12-13 years or so, fantasy football has become one of my favorite annual pastimes. With a mathematically-inclined mind and a great love for the game of football, the coupling just seems to be natural. Each year I give my top ranked players by position and 2009 will be no different. These are based on a combination of my statistical forecasts and expert opinions from various magazines I look at throughout the summer. If anyone out there would like to join my league please let me know.
Today, we will take a look at the leader of an offensive unit, the quarterback. Though the QB is generally not thought of as the most important fantasy position, they are still quite capable of scoring massive amounts of points and leading teams to victory. Without further ado, here are my rankings.
QBs to Stay Away From
Anybody from Detroit – Daunte Culpepper and rookie Matthew Stafford will be lucky to make it out of 2009 alive after being behind this offensive line.
Marc Bulger, StL – The Rams are horrible, just horrible, and trading away Torry Holt isn’t helping. Bulger is an interception-prone mess.
Vince Young, Ten – I don’t care if the guy really does think he’ll be in the Hall of Fame someday, he can’t beat out 36 year old journeyman Kerry Collins. That should be enough to scare anybody away from this train wreck.
QBs to Keep an Eye On:
Jay Cutler, Chi – Though Cutler put up great numbers in Denver, I think it can safely be said that his tenure in Chicago, with no marquee receivers and a run-first philosophy, will be far more underwhelming.
Kyle Orton, Den – Though it remains to be seen how well Orton will replace Jay Cutler in Denver, a drop-off in production should probably be expected. If WR Brandon Marshall comes back strong from hip surgery and can stay out of off-the-field trouble, Orton could be a decent option.
Trent Edwards, Buf – Though the first two seasons of his career have been statistically mediocre, the addition of WR Terrell Owens could provide him enough of a boost to consider.
10. Donovan McNabb, Phi – At age 32, McNabb isn’t the runner he once was, but to compensate his aerial attack has evolved into one of the better ones in the league. With weapons like second year player DeSean Jackson (912 yards receiving as a rookie), first round draft pick Jeremy Maclin, and RB Brian Westbrook who has proven himself to be one of the greatest dual threat running backs playing today, he should again be able to put up good numbers.
My Prediction: 3800 yards passing, 22 TDs, 12 Ints
9. Matt Schaub, Hou – In an injury-shortened 2008, Schaub put up good numbers (11 games, 3,043 yards, 15 TDs and 10 Ints) that, if nothing else, proved what he was capable of for the Texans. This year I expect him to take the next step and become one of the better players behind center. It doesn’t hurt to have one of the best receivers in the league in Andre Johnson, an excellent young tight end in Owen Daniels, and a second year running back who already has one big season under his belt in Steve Slaton. If the offensive line holds up Schaub could put up some gaudy numbers.
My Prediction: 3500 yards, 24 TDs, 12 Ints
8. Matt Ryan, Atl – The general rule among fantasy football experts is to stay away from starting rookie quarterbacks, but, as Ryan proved in 2008, sometimes the experts are completely wrong. WR Roddy White has racked up nearly 2600 yards and 13 TDs over the past two seasons and should be primed to repeat again this season as Ryan’s main target, while the tandem of RBs Michael Turner and Jerrious Norwood (over 2,500 total yards and 23 TDs combined) take enough pressure off of him to put up some great numbers.
My Prediction: 3800 yards, 26 TDs and 13 Ints
7. Kurt Warner, AZ – Many publications have Warner in the top five and some even in the top 3, but I’m just not that confident in the 38 year old wonder. Sure he has the best receiving corps in the league (Larry Fitzgerald, Anquin Boldin, and Sean Breaston each had over 1,000 yards in 2008) and is poised for another huge year, but I can’t get past the age and proclivity for injury.
My Prediction: 4100 yards, 28 TDs and 15 Ints
6. Tony Romo, Dal – Yeah, I know I’m a Cowboy fan and an undeniable homer, but if Romo comes anywhere near the level of play he exhibited in 2007 (Over 4200 yards and 36 TDs), he will be one of the year’s best. The wild card for the post-Terrell Owens ‘Boys will rest with Roy Williams and his ability to succeed as the number one target. If he proves able, Romo should cruise through with more excellent stats.
My Prediction: 3800 yards, 30 TDs and 18 Ints
5. Philip Rivers, SD – In the past three seasons as the Chargers QB, Rivers has continually improved his game, becoming one of the few truly elite fantasy quarterbacks. With veteran Chris Chambers, rising star Vincent Jackson, and perhaps the best tight end in the NFL, Antonio Gates, Rivers is set to again be a dominating force in the AFC West. Having RB Ladanian Tomlinson doesn’t hurt either.
My Prediction: 3800 yards, 30 TDs, and 14 Ints
4. Aaron Rodgers, GB – Stepping into the giant shoes of one of the all-time greats is a tough job for any young player, but there is probably no player that it is tougher to replace than Brett Favre in Green Bay. In 2008, though, the young Rodgers proved himself up to the task as he amassed over 4000 yards and 28 touchdowns for the Pack. With the Hollywood-like receiving tandem of Gregg Jennings, as the hugely talented young up-and-comer, and Donald Driver, as the grizzled vet who can still knock out a 1,000 yard season, Rodgers has a team around him that will make him into a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
My Prediction: 4000 yards, 32 TDs and 14 Ints
3. Tom Brady, NE – 2007 was an incredible record-setting year for Brady, but in 2008 he fell back to earth in an injury-shortened season that consisted of only part of one game. The eye will be on Brady’s durability this time around – will he return to his iron man pre-08 form? With weapons like Randy Moss and Wes Welker still in place, he is poised for another huge year.
My Prediction: 4600 yards, 32 TDs and 14 Ints
2. Peyton Manning, Ind – No other quarterback in the league has the level of statistical consistency that Manning does. Year in and year out he can be counted on for great yardage and plenty of touchdowns and I expect no less in 2009. Despite the fact that he is 33 years old, I expect little drop-off from Manning’s play – the arm strength remains and its not like he’s ever been much of a runner. WRs Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez will probably come another great receiving duo for the perennially excellent Colts.
My Prediction: 4000 yards, 30 TDs and 12 Ints
1. Drew Brees, NO – Though Brees has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league for the past several years, 2008 set a whole new bar for him as perhaps the best. His 5,069 yards and 34 touchdowns were tops in the league and, at only age 30, I expect him to reign as one of the best for a few years to come. He has a good corps of receivers led by Marques Colston and one of the better tight ends in the game in Jeremy Shockey. Both running backs, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, are also excellent receiving threats, helping to boost the power of this offensive weapon even more.
My Prediction: 4800 yards, 35 TDs and 15 Ints
Thoughts?
