Lately there has been quite the uproar over a photo showing Florida governor Charlie Crist embracing President Obama when he was in the state to pitch the stimulus package from earlier this year. Of course, this small gesture goes beyond a mere hug. This is no mere friendly embrace. Rather, this only proves to detractors that Crist has taken on the Communist Socialist Fascist ideals of President Obama. See the picture below:
Now this isn’t the first instance of a hug going beyond its surface meaning, signifying something deeper. The Washington lovefest always carries with it an interesting undercurrent.
First we have the “Yes, I have sold my soul” hug.
Then the, “Out of my way, old man, and watch where you put your hands” hug.
And of course there is the, “Oh, you hate America too” hug
Get out your pen and paper (or your keyboard for those of you “modern” types) and ready yourself for the following prognostications of what you can expect to see tomorrow, some “words of wisdom” if you will.
In Senate elections, the Democrats will expand their current 51-49 majority somewhat, but not quite enough to reach the fillibuster-proof 60. I expect them to pick up 7 more seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia. There is a slight possibility that the Dems could also take Kentucky, where candidate Bruce Lunsford is trailing incumbent Rep. Mitch McConnell 44-50%, and/or Georgia, where Democrat Jim Martin is trailing incumbent Saxby Chambliss 44-49%. Unless something completely unexpected happens, the Republicans will probably not pick up any seats from the Dems. So, after tomorrow, expect a Senate split 58-42 in favor of the Democrats.
In the most anticipated and most closely-watched contest set for tomorrow we will finally (hopefully) witness the climax of this nearly 2 year presidential campaign and its endless supply of unfounded accusations and surname-less blue collar workers. And this election cycle’s top prize will go to…..I know the suspense must be killing you….could this be any more anticlimactic?….the one….the only…Barack Obama!
My Electoral Vote Prediction:
Obama/Biden: 353
McCain/Palin: 185
Popular Vote Prediction:
Obama/Biden: 53%
McCain/Palin: 45%
That means that Obama will pick up 8 states that the Dems lost in 2004: Colorado, Florica, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.
What do you think? Any predictions out there in blog land?
Back in my high school days, much of the crowd that I ran with could best be described as, well, redneck. I had friends who dipped Copenhagen and sported Confederate flags (note: There is a 15 year old photograph in existence where several of us posed behind said flag. Needless to say, any hopes I might have of running for public office are out the window). We drove pickup trucks down gravel roads and through any mud puddles we came across. Though I never joined them in owning firearms and was always a bit queasy at the idea of shooting an evolutionary cousin, we did find a unifying factor in country music, but not just any old overproduced Nashville garbage, we went for the outlaws, in particular, Hank Williams Jr.
Countless nights we would spend driving backroads or sitting around a campfire singing aloud to Hank’s tales of debauchery and rebellion. Songs like “A Country Boy Can Survive,” “Whiskey Bent and Hell Bound,” and “Family Tradition,” were staples among our little group.
But, times have changed. I grew up and moved away from the small town life, embracing my inner liberal and growing out of that music phase that involved Bocephus. Even the nostalgia that I feel from hearing these tunes today is coupled with a certain amount of cringing. Unsurprisingly, Hank is now putting out ads that support John McCain.
My friend Ryan gave me a present for my birthday tonight that I got a pretty big kick out of. It’s a little book entitled: 72 Things Younger Than John McCain.
A few of the entries include:
Nachos
Social security
The zip code
Penicillin
Macaroni & cheese
49 out of 50 governors
Spam
Mount Rushmore
Cheerios
Alaska
Also included in the back of the book is a short list of things older than McCain, which include:
I first heard about this via an email update and knew that it would be something that should be posted (even though Elrod did it first on his private blog). The other night John McCain was set to make an appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman, but called it off at the last minute because of his desire to swoop into Washington Superman-like to save the economy. So Dave, with last minute replacement Keith Olbermann, have a little fun at the senator’s expense.
Meanwhile, Sarah Palin may be having some of her own pastor problems. The video below has recently surfaced in which she goes before the congregation to receive a blessing from her pastor, during which he prays for God to send her money and protect her from witchcraft….
Yeah, that’s right…witches… I don’t know about you, but I think, Sarah Palin: Witch Hunter, could make a great comic book or maybe even a television series on the Sci Fi network.
This being an election year, the television news cycles and nearly all publications have become inundated with polling data and statistics, most of which are fairly innocuous, that carry the intent to inform (or perhaps coerce) the average consumer. As a statistician, I am fascinated with polls and numbers and how they are used in public discourse. There are a few pointers to always remember when looking at the reported data:
1. Pay attention to the error. If Obama is leading McCain by 47%-45%, with +/- 3% error, it is a dead heat. If, in the next poll, McCain is now leading 48%-46%, it probably does not show any actual change in the attitude of the general populace. Rather, it is just a random statistical fluctuation.
2. Don’t ever make assumptions based on only one poll. Though statisticians try and poll a solid sample of America, the potential always exists that they could choose more supporters of one candidate over the other, skewing the data.
3. Pay attention to the question asked by the organization giving the poll. Results can be easily manipulated depending on the wording of the question and the order of the choices given.
So, given the way that statistics can be used and misused, the best method for gleaning good information is to look at a cross-section of polling data and pay attention to all aspects of the polls. I’ve done a bit of research, using the data on pollingreport.com, in which I’ve averaged the results from several reports by week, ranging from mid-July to now. This is how it looks so far:
Note: Week 6 was the Democratic National Convention and Week 7 was the Republican. You can see a definite bounce for each of them.
Each week has anywhere from 5 to 10 polls used and, I placed the data for each of these on a normal distribution curve for their respective weeks in order to identify data that may not be good. For instance,
A Fox News poll for September 8-9 showed Obama at only 42%. Given that his mean score for that week was 45% with a standard deviation of 1.5%, we can deduce that this score falls outside of 2 standard deviations, the 95% confidence level.
Does that make sense? I could talk for hours about this, so you may not want me to get started…
When I began this screenwriting project some three weeks ago, I had no idea that it would go on this long. As the story continued the script grew until it finally reached its end today after 15 scenes, 34 pages of text, and 12,304 words.
The whole idea came after I heard about John McCain’s running mate, former beauty queen and firearm aficionado Sarah Palin. Along with that, you have their opponent, a dark-skinned man with an Arabic-sounding name who is dogged by rumors of both Marxist and Muslim beliefs. So, that’s where it started and from there it grew into this overly-long monstrosity written mainly during my lunch breaks at work over the past three weeks that includes everything from zombies to ninjas to nuclear weapons. If you haven’t read it and my description hasn’t scared you off, start at the beginning and let me know what you think of it.
You can connect to the earlier chapters of our bad action movie script here – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Scene 14: McCain climbs through the window and into the crown of the statue. Below him he can see green fields and highways stretching for miles. In the background, Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the USA” begins playing. He settles in for a few moments and looks out over the countryside. Closing his eyes, McCain remembers.
The camera begins going through a nostalgic trip of memories.
Scenes from his time in Vietnam start playing through his mind – friends who died and villages that were napalmed. He thinks of the years spent tortured in a small Vietnamese cell and his eventual release.
He remembers coming home to his first wife….nevermind…he quickly shuns that scene to they side. Then there’s a picture of Cindy and another of him swimming in a sea of money. A smile crosses McCain’s face.
He remembers the campaigns and the years standing before the Senate. He thinks of the rolling desert of his homestate of Arizona.
And then he thinks of the flag, the stars and stripes flapping in the wind. A single tears rolls down his face.
The phantasm of Ronald Reagan again appears, joined with George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and the three of them stand and salute him.
The song is nearing its end and, as Greenwood sings the line “And I proudly stand up,” followed by a clap, McCain stands solidly and grasps the steering wheel. The three ghostly figures behind him put their arms around each other’s shoulders and sing the chorus of the song together for the last time, “And I’m proud to be an American…”
The statue is soaring high above the city of Washington D.C. when the song reaches its last words, “God Bless the U.S.A.” and it explodes in a dazzling array of colors that somehow form and gigantic American flag that can be seen for hundreds of miles around.
People across the country suddenly stop whatever they are doing and turn to the east, see the flag lit up in the sky, and salute. Farmers in their fields and schoolchildren on playgrounds and businessmen stuck in long traffic jams stand up and pay their respects.
Scene 15: Sarah Palin is looking out at the huge explosion, still clad in her bikini with a shotgun strapped across her back. She suddenly hears a voice behind her that startles her out of her trance.
Male voice: Governor Palin?
Palin turns around looks out at a roomful of people that she did not realize were behind her. Karl Rove is present with his signature sinister look at black cloak. Mitt Romney, splattered with putrid, black liquid from defeated zombies, raises his chainsaw hand in salute. Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani are all kneeling before her with eyes downcast. Tim LaHaye and Pat Robertson bow in her direction. The cast of Fox News – Sean Hannity, Bill O’Reilly, Britt Hume, etc. – walk toward her and lay roses at her feet.
Suddenly, “Hail to the Chief” plays loudly throughout the room and George Bush, dressed in his flight suit and with a smirk plastered across his face, walks into the room.
Bush: Hey ya’ll. Glad you could join us. Governor Palin, I want you to know just how happy we are to have you as our future president. Hey, ya’ll out there in the librul press better not misunderestimate this here woman. She’s a dandy.
Bush then drapes a sash over her that reads Ms. President 2008.
Bush: Congratulations, Governor Palin. I now anoint you the future leader of the free world. Hehehehehehehehe.
Palin (looking overly surprised): Thank you, Mr. President. I gladly accept. Together we will eradicate all evil from the world and lead the world to a new era of peace, Pax Americana.
Suddenly a door bursts open and a harried-looking man leaps through. He attempts to run through the large gathering of men in order to get to Palin, but they close in around him, guns drawn. The camera focuses in on the man – its Al Gore.
Gore: Wait, wait, Governor Palin!
Palin (looking visibly perturbed): Yes, Al. What is it this time?
Gore: Ms. Palin, don’t you realize the environmental impact of these explosions? We’re in a global climate crisis! Just look at these cute baby polar bears.
Gore hands her a photograph of some polar bears playing in the snow.
Gore: These explosions will no doubt accelerate the warming process, leaving these poor little guys homeless. Just look at them. Do you want to make all of the baby polar bears homeless?
Palin: I eat polar bears for breakfast, Al.
Gore: But, but…wait! Think about the global consequences of your actions! Have you thought about the size of your carbon footprint? We must take action.
Palin: Whatever, Al.
Palin bends to the ground and picks up a loose flamethrower. The Republican crowd quickly moves away from Gore.
Gore: Wait, what are you doing, Ms. Palin. I only want to talk about your environmental impact.
Palin fits the flamethrower to her shoulder and expertly pulls the trigger, bathing Gore in flames.
Gore: Aiiieeee!
Gore runs out of the room like a human torch, screaming for help.
Palin: Now that’s what I call global warming.
The roomful of people begin to laugh together in unison. The room fills with children of all ages who join in the laughter. The phantasms of Reagan, Washington, and Lincoln again appear, this time joined by McCain, cackling with glee. “God Bless the USA” begins playing in the background and the credits roll.
We are nearing the end of our bad action movie script. If you missed the earlier posts, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8, you can find them here.
Scene 13: The whirring sound of helicopter blades turning suddenly fills the air as the aircraft hovers directly outside of the window. Fred Thompson, who is sitting in side the helicopter, quickly motions to them.
Thompson: John, Sarah, hurry!
Palin runs to the window and leaps into the helicopter, landing deftly on the floor. She turns around and motions to McCain.
As McCain’s attention is turned, Obama sneaks up him and attacks with his short sword, missing with the stabbing thrust, but still cutting a long, bloody swath along his back.
McCain: Arggghhh!
McCain hits the floor and rolls before leaping to his feet into a crouching position a few yards away. A trail of blood can be seen where he rolled.
Obama: You cannot defeat the will of Allah, McCain. This will end now.
McCain: Bring it on!
Obama lunges forward with his sword, narrowly missing McCain as he dodges to the side. McCain then grabs his arm with one hand and brings the other down on Obama’s elbow in a powerful karate chop, snapping the bone with the one blow. The sword falls to the ground. Obama screams in pain.
Looking up, Obama glares at McCain with venomous eyes and charges, ramming into him and pushing him backwards. McCain pounds on his back, but does little to stop his rage-filled attack. With one final surge of energy, Obama pushes McCain out the window and they both tumble into the helicopter. Thompson and Palin look on in stunned silence as the two men punch and claw at each other. The pilot of the aircraft hits the gas and it quickly takes off, buzzing around above the statue.
Palin jumps forward to help out, but McCain grabs her by the shoulder.
McCain: No, Sarah. This is my fight and my fight alone. Obama and I must settle this.
McCain and Obama again exchange blows and push each other closer to the edge of the helicopter and the long drop below. Suddenly, Obama slips on some of McCain’s blood that has pooled on the floor and falls. McCain reaches out and grabs him by the robe, holding him outside of the open copter.
McCain: Give it up, Obama, it is over. You will never win.
Obama gives a sinister smile in return.
Obama: Yes, and you will subject me to a mock trial and a public death, making me the martyr that I long to be anyway. Yes, Senator, that is what will happen. My people will not quit because I am dead, oh no, they will not rest until ever ounce of freedom in this world is gone! There is nothing that we hate more than freedom, not even Jesus. (His voice rises to a shout) The Communist Muslims will soon rule the entire earth!
He breaks into a derisive laugher and, while staring straight into McCain’s eyes, he suddenly reaches inside his robe and pulls out a very small blade which he flicks straight into McCain’s abdomen. The sudden attack causes McCain to lose his grip on Obama and he lets go of the robe.
As Obama falls from the helicopter high above the ground he yells loudly with a wild, triumphant call.
Obama: Allah Akbar!
He tumbles through the air, laughing, the Statue of Liberty’s head directly below him. He hits one of the long spikes protruding from the statue’s crown at an astonishing speed, impaling him on the pointed end. His body slides part of the way down the spike, leaving behind a trail of blood, but his arms and legs continue to wave wildly and his eyes are open wide with terror.
The helicopter lands on the ground below and Palin and Thompson together carry McCain’s body out and lay him on the ground. The have quickly packed his wounds, stopping the bleeding momentarily, but there has been so much blood already lost that it seems like an almost lost cause.
Sean Hannity pushes through the crowd, cameraman in tow, and leans down to McCain with his microphone held out.
Hannity: How do you feel, Senator McCain?
McCain: (Groaning in pain) I’ve been better.
Hannity: So, there you have it folks. Senator McCain is a true hero and I have no doubts that he will soon help us to wipe the entire Muslim religion from the face of the earth. Let’s get one last closeup of Obama before the commercial break.
The camera zooms in on Obama and something can be seen in his hand.
Hannity: What is that? What does that scum have in his hand?
The camera zooms in farther until the object can be easily made out – it’s a remote control.
Hannity: A remote control? What could that be for?
McCain suddenly sits up, ignoring his grievous injuries.
McCain: Nooo!
Obama presses the lone red button on the control and a loud rumbling sound soon fills the air. The ground is shaking like a powerful earthquake and nearby buildings begin collapsing on themselves. Smoke starts emitting from the base of the statue. People are screaming and running for cover, trampling each other in the stampede. With a gigantic booming sound, the Statue of Liberty suddenly lifts from the ground with a great explosion, flattening everything nearby with a wall of fire. Ducking behind a Fox News van, McCain, Palin, and Hannity survive the huge blast. As the flames subside, the three of them rise up and look above them: The Statue of Liberty is aloft like a rocket, flying with great speed through the clouds above.
McCain: Sean, he’s going to take out Washington. You must warn the people.
Palin throws herself into McCain’s arms.
Palin: Oh, John, how will we ever stop them?
Suddenly, a cell phone rings. McCain reaches into his pocket and lifts it to his ear.
McCain: Yo, McCain speaking.
Voice on the other end with a strong Texas accent: Hey John boy, this is Dubya, how’s it goin’?
McCain: Well, President Bush, we actually have a bit of a problem. There is enough nuclear power to flatten Washington on its way there now.
Bush: Whew, good thing I’m in Crawford, hehehehehe.
McCain: There must be some way to stop it, but we just can’t get up to the statue fast enough.
Bush: Let me tell you somethin’, John. I think we’ve developed just what you need to get up there and take care of things.
McCain: Well…well…why don’t you do it? Let’s end this attack now!
Bush: Whoa, now hold on a second, John. I’m kind of busy right now, you know, clearing brush and stuff, but I’ve sent a prototype of our latest weapon against terrorism to you. General Petraeus will brief you and stuff. Later, John, the brush is calling me.
The phone goes dead and McCain looks up. General Petraeus is standing in front of him, looking grave and holding a large box.
Petraeus: Senator McCain, this is the military’s new highly-classified transportation device to be used in the global war on terrorism.
Petraeus removes the lid from the box fishes around for a minute and pulls out a large, steel backpack-looking device covered with blinking lights.
Petraeus: Ladies and gentlemen, the nuclear-powered rocket pack.
The crowd (in unison): Ooooohhhh.
Petraeus: But, Senator, there is one caveat that has not yet been discussed regarding this mission. The rocket pack has the ability to get you to the flying statue in time. According to your report, there is a steering wheel located within the crown that can be used to steer the bombs away from their target. But, there is one small issue. The autopilot that Obama has set cannot be changed so, even if you did move the wheel and turn the statue off course, after you leave it behind it would straighten itself back out toward its target. So, someone must be willing to not only guide the statue away from the capital city, but they must realize that they will have to hold the wheel until the bombs explode. This will mean certain death for that individual, but the lives saved will be countless. Who will take this task?
Everyone looks at the ground at once and starts mumbling excuses.
Petraeus (looking around in disbelief): Will anybody volunteer their life to save our nation?
McCain steps forward and places his right hand in the air.
McCain: General, I’ll do it. John McCain reporting for duty.
The massive crowd erupts in wild applause and a chant of “USA! USA!”
McCain steps forward and motions for the crowd to quiet down.
McCain: You know, my friends, there once was a young man who said, “I regret that I have but one life to give for my country,” before his wartime execution at the hands of our enemies. Today, I echo his sentiments, for there is no cause greater than that of country and there is no power of good greater in the world today than the USA. I am turning the reins over to Ms. Palin, who I have no doubt will lead our great nation back to the Christian roots of our forefathers. She will guide this new Christian empire into the new century and she will stamp out the forces of evil across the world with the iron fist of Jesus. With our God-given free market principles and immense firepower, the world will fall like dominoes until we, the lone force of good in the world, will stand tall above all others. Our earth has stood for 6,000 years and, under our rule, it will no doubt stand for 6,000 more – unless, of course, the rapture happens and all of the Republicans disappear, but that’s another story altogether. God Bless America!
Palin, still dressed in her red, white, and blue bikini throws herself into his arms, hugging him and kissing him on the cheek.
Palin: I’ll never forget you, John.
McCain: Sarah, this is your land now. Lead them in the right way.
McCain straps on the rocket pack and pushes one of the blinking buttons. The pack begins to power up.
McCain: Goodbye, my friends. Let freedom ring!
Fire shoots from the rocket pack and McCain blasts into the air and out of sight.
