2010 Fantasy Football Analysis – Wide Receivers August 19, 2010Posted by Matt in fantasy football.
Tags: 2010, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, fantasy football, Larry Fitgerald, Miles Austin, NFL, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, running backs, Simeon Rice
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There aren’t really any situations to avoid for receivers because you generally need at least three of them on a fantasy team and every NFL team has at least one that is worth being picked up. This list will be dedicated to the teams whose receivers you do not want to count on as a first or second option from week to week.
The Raiders’ top returning wide receiver, Chaz Schilens, has a total of only 591 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Couple that with the all-around awfulness of the team and you quickly realize there is no one here to rely on.
The Browns seem destined for the cellar this season and their top two receivers, Joshua Cribbs (135 yards and 1 TD in 2009) and Mohamed Massaquoi (624 yards and 3 TDs in 2009) will do little to help them climb out.
3. Tampa Bay
With an underperforming veteran (Maurice Stovall) and a rookie (Mike Williams) set to start, the Bucs will not be much of a force through the air in 2010.
4. St. Louis
Mediocre receivers (Laurent Robinson, Donnie Avery) and a rookie quarterback equal little airborne offensive firepower for the rams.
The Seahawks will begin the year with two past-their-prime targets (TJ Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch) and an aging quarterback, so don’t look for much in the way of offensive production.
Five players/situations with potential – none of the following athletes made my top ten, but all of them could be there by the end of the year.
1. Chad Ochocinco/Terrell Owens, Cin
The Bengals swung for the fences this year in the offseason, picking up one ultra-talented potential headache in Owens to add to the one already in place in Ochocinco. If they can play well together, this could be a killer combination. If not, it could fail miserably.
2. Anguan Boldin, Bal
For years the Ravens have been a team built around their defense, keeping around only enough offensive firepower to win games. This season, though, with the additions of Boldin and Donte Stallworth, Baltimore seems ready to open things up a bit. Boldin could be a valuable addition to any team if that happens.
3. Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem, NO
Though the Saints have a quarterback who puts up some of the best passing numbers in the NFL, the fantasy values of the receivers are lower than would normally be expected. Because this trio along with TE Jeremy Shockey are so talented, they tend to leech catches from each other and thus hurt the number of fantasy points scored. Colston is the obvious choice, but Meacher also put up excellent numbers in his second year as a pro and Henderson is no slouch either.
4. Percy Harvin, Min
With Brett Favre back in the saddle, Harvin could be set for a big 2010, but due to the fact that he will be a second option behind Simeon Rice, his value may be a bit lower. He’s definitely worth a pick, but not as a top choice.
5. Vincent Jackson, SD
Jackson is a lock for putting up good numbers, but due to his preseason holdout, it remains to be seen how effective or for that matter, present, he will be in the upcoming season.
Now for the Top 10…
10. Calvin Johnson, Det
Johnson is, without a doubt, an immensely talented wide receiver, but in 2009 his numbers (984 yards, 5 TDs) took a dip with then-rookie QB Matthew Stafford. This season the Lions are still not a particularly good football team, but Stafford has a year under his belt and the draft addition of Jahvid Best should help to take some of the pressure off the passing game. I expect Johnson to bounce back this season and again show himself to be among the best in the league.
9. Brandon Marshall, Mia
An incredible talent with a penchant for injuries and bad personal decisions, Marshall is a bit of a wild card in 2010. If he can stay healthy and keep out of trouble, his first season in Miami could be a huge one. Marshall has caught over 100 balls in each of the past three seasons, and racked up over 3,700 yards and 23 touchdowns, making him one of the most consistent wideouts in the league. This could be his biggest year yet.
8. Reggie Wayne, Ind
The high-powered Colts offense thrives on its Peyton Manning-helmed passing attack and for the past few years Reggie Wayne has been on the receiving end of the vast majority of those balls. At age 31 Wayne shows little sign of slowing down, so there is no reason to think he will not pull in another great season similar to the last one (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs).
6. Roddy White, Atl
Roddy White has been a consistently good receiver for the past few years, pulling in 80-90 catches per season for around 1,200 yards each time, but 2009 was the first time he caught double digit touchdown passes (11), QB Matt Ryan has another year of experience, so expect him to be a sharper passes and White will no doubt be one of the main recipients of his well-honed skill.
5. Randy Moss, NE
At 33, Moss isn’t getting any younger and his skills will no doubt soon take a bit of a dive, but his 1,264 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 have helped maintain his position as an elite receiver. With the great Tom Brady at QB and Wes Welker and Torry Holt to keep some of the heat off him, Moss should again shine for the Patriots.
4. Simeon Rice, Min
I’d bet there was probably nobody who wanted Brett Favre to come back in 2010 more than Rice. I mean, if you were a budding star receiver who would you rather catch passes from? The rocket arm of Brett Favre or that of Tavarius Jackson? Exactly. Rice put up over 1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009 and I expect nothing less than that in 2010.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, AZ
It remains to be seen whether or not Fitzgerald will be able to thrive without fellow receiver Anguan Boldin lined up across the field, able to take some of the heat off him. Even when sharing receptions with Boldin, Fitzgerald was able to grab 90-100 balls and score double-digit touchdowns each season, so without him Fitz’s role will grow even more important. One also must keep in mind the fact that the disappointing Matt Leinart will take over at QB this season, which could adversely affect his numbers and admittedly caused me to drop him from the second spot to the third.
2. Miles Austin, Dal
Austin emerged in 2009 as the Cowboys’ top receiving threat, garnering 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns, and this season he looks poised to best those numbers. The addition of rookie WR Dez Bryant gives the ‘Boys a viable second threat, which should help free Austin to flourish with QB Tony Romo. Believe me, Miles Austin will be the man in the big D this season.
1. Andre Johnson, Hou
Andre Johnson is the premier receiver working in the NFL today. He has caught over 100 passes and racked up more than 1,500 yards in each of the past two seasons while scoring a total of 17 touchdowns. QB Matt Schaub really came into his own in 2009 and I fully expect the Schaub-Johnson combination to be even bigger this season. Houston is a team ready to take a big step in 2010 and it all starts here with their best player. Look for him to deliver, big time.