Words of Wisdom

2010 Fantasy Football Analysis – Running Backs August 17, 2010

Last week we began our look at the upcoming Fantasy Football season by analyzing the most visible position, Quarterback. Today we will move forward with a discussion of the position often seen as the most important in a fantasy league, running back.

Five Situations to Avoid

1. New England
The Patriots may be the best team of the last decade, but their success was certainly not built around their adequate, but unspectacular, running game. They enter 2010 with another platoon of decent running backs that includes Laurence Maroney, 32 year old Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin “The Lesser” Faulk. The four backs will most likely split time, so none of them are worth a spot higher than a 3rd or 4th RB spot.

2. Oakland
It pains me to watch one of the greatest running backs in Arkansas Razorback history struggle with an inept team and nagging injuries, but two seasons into his career, Darren McFadden is already looking like a has-been. This season the Raiders have ditched last year’s starter, Justin Fargas, leaving the reins to McFadden and Michael Bush, neither of which has exactly lit the bay area up. Avoid them unless you need a late draft back-up.

3. Chicago
In 2009 there was probably no player more frustrating to fantasy owners than Matt Forte, who followed up a spectacular rookie season (1,238 yards, 12 TDs) with a mediocre-at-best sophomore run (929 yards, 4 TDs). Unless Forte makes a big comeback push this season, he will again struggle behind an average Bear offensive line.

4. Tampa Bay
Cadillac Williams was once a promising NFL star for the Buccaneers (1,178 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie in 2005), but soon his career turned into an injury-plagued mess (an average of 515 yards and 3 TDs, with a yards per rush below 4, over the next 4 seasons). With 30 year old Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham filling out the stable, don’t expect much from the Bucs’ running game.

5. Seattle
The Seahawks brought in Leon Washington to push last season’s lackluster starting running back, Julius Jones, but behind a bad offensive line neither of them are destined to have a good year. On a positive note, second year player Justin Forsett played pretty well last season, but he is currently mired in the third spot on the depth chart.

Five players with potential – none of the following athletes made my top ten, but all ten have the potential to be there by the end of the year.

1. Shonn Greene, NYJ
Greene came on strong at the end of 2009 as the now-departed Thomas Jones’ back up and, given that the Jets have an excellent offensive line, many are predicting great things from him this season. While I certainly expect to see him improve, the increase in his numbers will depend greatly on the amount of time he will have to share with newly acquired veteran Ladanian Tomlinson.

2. Time Hightower/Beanie Wells, AZ
With few exceptions, running back stables are generally fantasy killers and Arizona displays one more instance in which talented backs cede carries to each other and decrease their personal statistics. Together Hightower and Wells racked up 1,391 rushing yards, 571 receiving yards, and 15 TDs – Pro Bowl numbers for a single back, but terribly frustrating when split between two.

3. Ryan Mathews, SD
Rookie running back Ryan Mathews has been given the unenviable task of picking up the mantle of one of the best running backs in a generation, Ladanian Tomlinson, but it is my feeling that he will shine behind the Chargers’ decent offensive line. If Mathews was not a rookie, I would probably have included him in my top ten, but as it is, you should seriously consider picking him up.

4. Felix Jones/Marion Barber, Dal
The Cowboys have yet another running back by committee situation, but according to sources, they seem convinced that Felix Jones will be their top choice in 2010. Adding the talented Tashard Choice to the mix complicates things even further and one can’t help but wonder how Dallas will distribute carries in a way that will pacify everyone.

5. Knowshon Moreno, Correl Buckhalter, Lendale White, Justin Fargas, Den
With the exception of second year player Moreno (who many thought underachieved as a rookie in 2009), the Broncos’ stable of running backs looks more like a retirement home for players who are past their prime. Though it remains to be seen how they will split carries between Moreno and the veterans, one thing is for certain: be wary when choosing a Denver back.

And now on to the top 10:

10. Steven Jackson, StL
You can’t help but feel bad for Steven Jackson. It must be tough to be one of the best backs in the league and to be stuck on the worst team, one that has won a grand total of six games in the past three seasons. Jackson is a great runner and an excellent receiver, but lacks the offensive line power to get into the end zone on a regular basis – he only scored 4 touchdowns in 2009 and hasn’t had double figure touchdowns since 2006. He is definitely a good draft choice in the first two rounds, particularly for his yardage totals.

9. Frank Gore, SF
I’ve never been a big believer in Frank Gore as an elite fantasy running back, but after putting up some of the best numbers of his career in 2009 (over 1,500 total yards, 13 TDs), I may have to eat my words. The sudden departure of backup Glen Coffee will probably mean even more work for Gore, so if he can handle it, this could be his best season yet. The 49ers are a team on the rise and he will be a big part of their success.

8. DeAngelo Williams, Car
I generally advise people to stay away from running back by committee situations, but Carolina gets a special exemption in my book. Last season the Panthers fielded two 1,000 yard rushers in DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart and I expect them to dominate again in 2010. DeAngelo is a special player who would have put up even bigger numbers last season if he had not missed three games for an injury. Over the past two seasons, he has accumulated more than 3,000 total yards and 27 touchdowns and at only age 27, he has a lot of miles left to go.

7. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit
In his second season, Mendenhall took over and solidified his starting role with the Steelers, racking up over 1,300 total yards and 8 touchdowns. In 2010, his main RB competition, former starter Willie Parker, is gone, as is the team’s top receiver and their starting quarterback (for the first six games). Thus, the team will be leaning heavily on Mendenhall to carry them through the first half of the season, so he should pick up a ton of touches. The team may be bad, but he’ll have decent stats.

6. Jamaal Charles, KC
Over the past decade, the Chiefs have developed a reputation for stellar running back play with greats like Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, so fans waited with bated breath for the next elusive runner to appear on the gridiron. The wait is over. Jamaal Charles showed last year (over 1,400 total yards, 8 TDs, and a whopping 5.9 yards/rush average) that he is up to the challenge. I expect him to continue the trend in his third season and firmly place himself among the league’s elite.

5. Michael Turner, Atl
It is important that we remember that backs who have over 350 rushes in a season are always more prone to injury and lower numbers in the following years. This adage proved to be true again in 2009 when Turner’s numbers dipped from 2008 (376 rushes, 1,699 yards, 17 TDs in 16 games) to 2009 (178 rushes, 871 yards, 10 TDs in 11 games). This season he should bounce back to a level better than 2009, but I would not expect him to have as many touches as he did in 2008.

4. Adrian Peterson, Min
Peterson is one of the most sought after backs in fantasy football for a good reason. In his first three seasons in the NFL, the young back has accumulated over 5,300 total yards and 41 touchdowns and is a lock for 300+ carries in a season. The presence of Brett Favre is a major boon to his performance as well because it takes some of the weight off his shoulders. Rookie Tobey Gerhart may steal a few carries, but it will surely not be enough to make a large difference in Peterson’s performance.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax
Jones-Drew did an excellent job in his first season as the featured back for the Jaguars, picking up over 1,700 total yards and 16 TDs while carrying the team on his back. In 2010 I expect to see his elite numbers improve even more as he becomes more accustomed to his role as a number one running back. The overall improvement of Jacksonville will also play a major part in his continuing development as one of the best players in the NFL.

2. Ray Rice, Bal
Ray Rice came out strong in 2009 with over 2,000 yards of total offense and 8 touchdowns, numbers he accumulated despite the presence of Willis McGahee taking away many goal line carries. With a top notch offensive line and a greatly improved passing game to take some of the heat off him, I expect Rice to reach even greater heights in 2010, especially if he gets more looks on the goal line than last season.

1. Chris Johnson, Ten
I was a bit hesitant to place Johnson at the top of the list because, though he believes he will put up even better numbers than he did in 2009 (over 2,500 total yards and 16 TDs), history says that we will see a dip in performance. Regardless, based on last year’s dominance, Johnson is now the premier back in the NFL. Even with the expected decrease he could and probably should be the top rated back again in 2010. The Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and quarterback Vince Young is proving to be more reliable, which will only help Johnson as defenses key in on him from week one.

Thoughts?