Words of Wisdom

2009 BCS Musings November 2, 2009

It is hard to believe that the 2009 college football regular season is already 2/3 of the way finished, but somehow time has gotten away and the finish line is quickly approaching. The third quarter of the season is well underway, the fourth is soon to begin and the field of competitors is narrowing. At this point, there are 7 undefeated teams remaining that are still in contention for a coveted spot in the BCS Championship game. So, as a service to you, I wanted to do a bit of handicapping so that you would know what to look for in the coming weeks.

1. Florida Gators 8-0
The Gators have beaten some decent teams, including then-#4 LSU 13-3, Tennessee 23-13, and Arkansas 23-20, but their win in the previous weekend against Georgia 41-17, was their first convincing one in weeks. Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow may have righted the ship against the Bulldogs and they should be able to coast through the next four games. South Carolina and Florida State may put up a fight, but neither is on the same level as Florida. The Gators can go ahead and reserve their spot in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.

2. Texas 8-0
I haven’t been a big believer in the Longhorns all season, despite their victories over a good Texas Tech team (34-24) and a talented but underachieving Oklahoma (16-13). This past week’s victory, a 41-14 trouncing of then-#13 Oklahoma St, has finally proved them to be contenders in 2009. Texas has a fairly uneventful stretch ahead of them, with the greatest possibility for upset probably being a regular season-ending trip to Texas A&M. With a weak North Division opponent to meet in the conference championship game, the Longhorns are almost a sure thing for the BCS Championship game.

3. Alabama 8-0
With the lone exception of last week’s close call against an improving Tennessee squad, Alabama has been exceptional this season, having posted convincing wins against then-#7 Virginia Tech (34-24), then-#20 Ole Miss (22-3), and then-#22 South Carolina (20-6). Next week’s matchup against #9 LSU will be a nice test for the Crimson Tide and their regular season-ending trip to Auburn could also prove to be problematic. They should be set for Atlanta, but they have a tougher road ahead than the Gators.

4. Cincinnati 8-0
With only one victory against a top 25 opponent, defeating then-#21 South Florida 34-17, the Bearcats have something still to prove in order to move up in the BCS rankings. Their schedule ahead offers what could prove to be tough games against West Virginia and at #14 Pittsburgh, so convincing wins in their last 4 games could help Cincy out some, but they really need one of the top three teams to slip up.

5. Boise St. 8-0
Yes, I know that Boise beat Oregon in the season-opener, but can you think of anybody they’ve beaten since then? With perhaps the exception of Tulsa (who they only beat by a touchdown), my guess would be probably not. Their remaining schedule consists of more teams whose presence would be more appropriate in a high school championship.

6. TCU 8-0
The Horned Frogs have looked great this season in the Mountain West, a strong second-tier conference. They’ve recorded victories against Clemson (14-10) and absolutely trounced then-#16 BYU (38-7). They still have a challenge left on Nov. 14 against #17 Utah, but besides that they should coast through the remainder of their regular season. They will need a lot of help to make it to a Championship game, though.

7. Oregon 7-1
The Ducks are the only team with a loss to make my list for a good reason – they are easily the best team in the Pac-10 Conference. Their one loss to then-#14 Boise State in the season-opener looms large as the Oregon faithful think of what might have been. The Ducks absolutely destroyed two top 10 teams, then-#6 California (42-3) and last week’s rout of then-#4 USC (47-20), so they deserve some kind of consideration. #23 Arizona is probably the only challenge remaining on the schedule, so I expect them to waltz into a BCS game this postseason.

8. Iowa 9-0
I can’t help but feel bad for the Hawkeyes because it is obvious that they are the big losers in this year’s BCS sweepstakes. They have several wins against quality opponents, including then-#5 Penn State (21-10), Michigan (30-28), Wisconsin (20-10), and Arizona (27-17), but because they tend to play down to the level of their competition and rarely record any blow-outs, the AP and Coach’s polls have really shafted the Hawkeyes, despite the fact that the computer polls rank them much higher. Their Nov. 14 matchup with #15 Ohio St will be the measuring stick by which Iowa will be judged. If they win convincingly, they deserve a shot at the title, but in our current system they will most likely be left behind.

Thoughts?